[esp-r] Re: The effect of climate change on weather data used forcomputer simulation of buildings and services.

[paul strachan]

A couple of recent emails that were sent accidentally to 
esp-r-bounces at lists.strath.ac.uk rather than esp-r at lists.strath.ac.uk
----------------------------------------
> Subject:
> RE: [esp-r] The effect of climate change on weather data used 
> forcomputer simulation of buildings and services.
> From:
> "Jake Zwart" <jake.zwart at sympatico.ca>
> Date:
> Fri, 13 Jul 2007 18:23:39 -0400
>
> To:
> "'Brian Spires'" <brian.spires at hlmarchitects.com>
> CC:
> <esp-r-bounces at lists.strath.ac.uk>
>
>
> One expert in the field is Timothy Ball, a former university professor 
> and now consultant that I think would have the expertise to help.  He 
> is in Canada, and as I understand it, did his PhD in looking at long 
> term weather records.  Try a web search on his name.  I used to read 
> his articles in a farming magazine 30 years ago and he impressed me.  
> I found his email address as timothyball at shaw.ca 
> <mailto:timothyball at shaw.ca> from the web site 
> http://www.nrsp.com/people-timothy-ball.html.
>  
> A quick lookup on his name brought me to 
> http://www.fcpp.org/main/publication_detail.php?PubID=864 where I 
> learned that away from urban centers there is currently global cooling. 
>  
> My wife and I recently stayed at a climatologist's house and we 
> learned that that one of the first things forcasters learn is to never 
> give the probability of rain at 50%.  40% & 60% are fine but if a 
> forcaster says 50% his credibility is gone.  I have never seen a 
> forcast with a 50% chace of rain, so I presume the people forcasting 
> the weather are well educated!  (This is from the Canadian context, 
> any of your locales use 50%?)
>  
> Have fun with your project, it would be interesting to have a summary 
> of what you learn periodically as you go ahead with your project.
>  
> Jake
> Subject:
> Re: [esp-r] The effect of climate change on weather data used 
> forcomputer simulation of buildings and services.
> From:
> Tim Ball <timothyball at shaw.ca>
> Date:
> Fri, 13 Jul 2007 16:02:54 -0700
>
> To:
> jake.zwart at sympatico.ca
> CC:
> 'Brian Spires' <brian.spires at hlmarchitects.com>, 
> esp-r-bounces at lists.strath.ac.uk
>
>
> I will be glad to help. I have some architecture training as well as 
> urban planning training and knowledge through studies on the urban 
> heat island effect as well as knowledge about climate change over 
> time. The latter is the first thing you need to know about if you are 
> going to plan or build for urban climates.
> Tim Ball